🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.