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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."